The Inaugural Podcast

As a new medium for enlightening the masses, the guru has moved into the world of podcasting. Teaming up with fantasy experts BirdofPrey18 and Mac Attack, he has joined the Triple Option, a talk show hosted by three of the world's premiere sports analysts. The inaugural episode was recorded this afternoon. The trio discussed the NFL Wildcard Round, the Winter Classic, and the BCS National Championship. A link to the podcast can be found here.

Super Bowl XLIV

NFL.com

It's here. After six months of anticipation and projections since NFL training camps opened in late July, it is now time for the climax of the season, the Super Bowl. (Shame on anyone who thought I was discussing the Pro Bowl.) The guru's immediate post-Brett-Favre as a Viking prediction called for a matchup between San Diego and Minnesota, in which the Chargers would be victorious. This early prognostication, made in August, fell just three wins short of coming true. The stars have aligned to feature a matchup of two of the NFL's most prolific passing attacks, setting the stage for an inevitable offensive shootout. Peyton Manning leads his Indianapolis Colts, fresh off of slicing through the league's top passing defense, against the high-octane offense of the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans, playing in the first Super Bowl in the 43-year history of the franchise, combines an explosive passing attack with an electric, although leaky, defense. Sean Payton, in his fourth year as head coach brings a playcalling method that holds nothing back. They will need his aggression if they want any chance of slowing down Indianapolis. As proven by the Jets in the AFC Championship, the best way to counter the Colts' offense is to get in Manning's face early and often. Also proven in that game, Manning cannot be stopped for long; it's only a matter of time before he figures out the blitzes and coverages and begins to dissect a defense. For the Saints to succeed, they will need to confuse Manning early and light up the scoreboard from the opening kickoff. Easier said than done.

Offensively, the Saints have the personnel to hang with anyone. Their first option is to air it out with Drew Brees, only the second quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 5,000 yards in a single season. If their opponent manages to limit the aerial attack, they are fully capable of pounding the rock with bruising running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell or dumping it off to the dynamic Reggie Bush. The Saints have too many weapons for defenses to halt their march into the endzone. (Get it?)

On the other sideline, Manning orchestrates an equally explosive offensive onslaught. While the Colts’ running game presents little threat (NFL worst 80.9 yards per game), the passing game is as versatile as they come. As All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis suffocated #1 receiver Reggie Wayne, Manning connected with the rest of this deep receiving corps. Pierre Garcon, second-year man out of Mount Union, led the way with an AFC Championship record 11 receptions and 151 yards against the Jets. Rookie Austin Collie, taken in the 4th round out of BYU, contributed 123 yards of his own. Tight end Dallas Clark, who caught over 100 balls in the regular season, chipped in with 4 receptions and a touchdown as Manning made due (and then some) without his top target.

The Saints’ defense was one of the most exciting to watch this season, recording 26 interceptions and 35 sacks, ranking among the league's best in both categories. These stats have caused many fans, particularly those who saw New Orleans turn in a #4 finish in the world of fantasy, just four points shy of #1, to believe they are one of the league’s best units. Those viewers are sadly mistaken. The Saints allowed 122.2 yards per game rushing, ranking them 21st in the league. This included the league’s 5th worst 4.5 YPC . They conceded 235.6 yards per game through the air, 26th in the NFL. While they may have forced many turnovers, they were unable to play shutdown defense. Their aggression will benefit them against Indianapolis, but if Manning can protect the ball, Indy should have no trouble moving the chains.

Indianapolis’ defense has improved from the heavily maligned squad of 2008, however they are still a liability. They rank 14th in pass defense, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.8% of their attempts, 7th worst in the league. This will haunt them against Drew Brees, who set the NFL record for single season completion percentage with 70.6%. Allowing 4.3 YPC, they were one of only ten teams to concede over 2,000 yards on the ground in 2009. Their interception and sack totals, which rely heavily on the pass rushing abilities of Dwight Freeney, were mediocre. Freeney is officially listed as questionable on the NFL Injury Report (link in the sidebar on the right) with what some call a sprain and others call a torn ligament in his ankle. Should Freeney be limited, the Saints would gain a tremendous edge.

Pierre vs. Pierre

Oddly enough, both teams possess players with the first name “Pierre.” Garcon, of the Colts, will likely play a major role in Indianapolis’ offense, but don’t expect the same level of stats he put up against the Jets. Reggie Wayne is Manning’s favorite receiver, who will be targeted more often now that he won’t be facing shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Thomas, of the Saints, will be licking his chops to plow through Indy’s undersized front seven. After facing the stout run defense of Minnesota, the PT Cruiser (nickname not concocted by the guru) will gash the Colts’ D for considerable chunks of yardage.

Predictions:

Garcon: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown

Thomas: 12 carries, 73 yards, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 1 touchdown

Reggie vs. Reggie

Again both offenses rely on playmakers that share first names. Bush, of the Saints, is a dynamic return man. His elusiveness may lead to some long kick returns. I do not believe he will be effective running the ball because Indy’s front seven is among the fastest in the league. They will be able to contain him more effectively than some of the bigger, slower linebacking corps he has faced recently. Wayne, of the Colts, is likely to have a monstrous game. Removed from the unbreakable coverage of Revis, Manning will be able to target the New Orleans native more often.

Predictions:

Bush: 5 carries, 18 yards, 6 receptions, 54 yards, tons of return yards, 1 touchdown

Wayne: 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown

Peyton vs. Payton

Manning was held under 300 yards just twice in the first ten games, once in a 299 yard effort against Baltimore and the other in a 42-6 win over St. Louis. He will reach that marker with ease if he is not challenged by the playcalling of Sean Payton and his coordinators.

Predictions:

Manning: 30/42, 312 yards, 3 touchdowns,

Sean and Co.: 4 sacks, 1 interception

Turnovers will be the key to Sunday’s battle. These offenses are near locks to score when presented with a short field. The Saints were outgained 475-257 by Minnesota in the NFC Championship. They escaped by the skin of their teeth by forcing five turnovers, including an interception on what might go down as Brett Favre’s last career pass.

Indianapolis set the NFL record with a 23 game winning streak. They have not lost any game in which they gave maximum effort. The lead will change hands many times, but at the end of the day, the Colts will be Super Bowl Champions.

Prediction: IND 37 NO 31

AFC Championship

Sunday's game between the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts will be contested by two completely contrasting teams. The Colts, coming off of a near-undefeated season, rely on the arm of Peyton Manning to outscore opponents. The Jets, who limped into the playoffs at 9-7, prefer to pound the ball up the middle and play shutdown defense. The AFC Championship will tell if Manning's air-it-out style can move the chains against Darrelle Revis and Co.

The Colts' offense is engineered for one purpose, letting Manning drop back and throw. Their running game is virtually nonexistent, averaging an unheard of 1.7 YPC against Baltimore. Against an aggressive Rex Ryan defense, the Colts' inability to run will resurface. Should Revis neutralize the dynamic Reggie Wayne, Manning will have to look at the rest of his deep receiving corps. More than likely, he will like what he sees. Between Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon (Mt. Union grad, more on that in the upcoming weeks), and Austin Collie, the Colts have the depth, despite being without the reliable Anthony Gonzalez, to challenge New York's top-ranked pass defense.

Mark Sanchez has matured at an astounding rate for a rookie QB, a pattern that must continue for the Jets' hopes to stay alive. Without a doubt, the backfield combination of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will pound through Indianapolis' undersized defense, but the Jets cannot afford to be one-dimensional. Sanchez will need to prove that he can hurt a defense through the air in order for Greene and Jones to see open running lanes. Part of Sanchez' success will rely on the hands of Braylon Edwards, who has shown inconsistency when it comes to catching a football. Look for tight end Dustin Keller to play a major role in New York's offensive gameplan.

The stats don't favor New York, but they seem to play with a grudge due to being continually counted out. The key stat lies in the Jets' inability to outscore Manning. They have only eclipsed the 30 point mark twice this season, once against the dysfunctional Raiders and another time in a meaningless Week 17 matchup with Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Colts have reached that plateau seven times thus far.

Will the football gods punish Indianapolis for ignoring a perfect season and granting New York free access to the postseason? Or will the Peyton Manning have a chance to become the first MVP to take home the Lombardi Trophy since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXIII? The guru predicts an Indianapolis victory. But it should be noted that, despite a 4-0 record on Saturdays, the guru has yet to accurately predict a winner on Sunday.

Prediction: IND 27 NYJ 17

AFC Divisional Round

This past weekend, we watched both AFC Wild Card teams advance from the opening round of the playoffs. As I predicted in the AFC Wild Card Round post, the Jets overtook the AFC North champion Bengals. However, unforeseen by the guru, the AFC East champion Patriots were trounced at home by Baltimore. More division champions await the victors, as the Chargers and Colts play host to the Wild Card teams this week.

This Sunday, the Jets travel to San Diego to face the red hot Chargers, who have won eleven consecutive games. These two teams have not met since 2008, when the Chargers walked all over the New York Bretts. This week's matchup should look entirely different, given New York's additions of Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and others. Sanchez returns to So Cal for the second time since he left USC to enter the NFL. In his other appearance, albeit against the Raiders, Sanchez posted a passer rating of 114 and rushed for a touchdown.

Offensively, the Jets should have little trouble running against the Chargers' 20th ranked rush defense, who let up 4.5 YPC. They have allowed over 100 yards on the ground to six of their last seven opponents, the lone exception being the incompetent Redskins. San Diego's secondary is statistically mediocre, however they should have no problem defending the Jets passing attack. While Sanchez certainly showed great poise last week against Cincinnati, his stats were heavily padded by terrific runs after the catch by his receivers. His supposed top target, Braylon Edwards, will be in court this week facing assault charges. Edwards, who was acquired from Cleveland midway through the season, has already eclipsed Dick Clark as the Big Apple's biggest ball dropper.

San Diego has the most explosive offense New York has seen in quite some time. (No, the Curtis Painter led Colts don't count.) Philip Rivers garnered some MVP buzz this season, as he owned the NFL's 3rd best passer rating behind only Drew Brees and Brett Favre. He led the Chargers to the NFL's 5th best passing offense, tossing only nine picks in 486 attempts. While Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis has been spectacular this season, he will be challenged by the size of receiver Vincent Jackson (6'5" 230 lbs), who tied for ninth in the league with 1,167 receiving yards. Tight end Antonio Gates finished right behind Jackson with 1,157 yards of his own. He combines his size (6'4" 260 lbs) with tremendous athletic ability, making him a matchup nightmare in the redzone. The running game took a massive step backwards this season finishing 31st in yards with the league's worst 3.3 YPC. However, if the Jets blitz Rivers, he's more than content to dump it off to RB Darren Sproles, affectionately nicknamed the Pocket Rocket for his elusiveness.

The Jets had the NFL's best pass defense in the regular season, but Rivers averaged 333 yards per game against the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, ranked 3rd-5th in the league, respectively. (The AFC North is tougher than people seem to think.) Keep in mind that New York's stats were padded by playing eight games in the harsh climate of East Rutherford, NJ. Sunday's game will be played in sunny California. I believe the Chargers will be too much for the Jets to handle.

Prediction: SD 27 NYJ 20

Playing in the post-college football Saturday time slot, the Ravens pay a visit to Indianapolis to face Peyton & Co. We all know the story. Indy had a shot at the record books by going undefeated, but decided that Manning's health (and 100 catches for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) was more important. On the contrary, Baltimore squeaked into the playoffs by winning a complex set of tiebreakers with Pittsburgh and Houston, although it sure didn't look that way Sunday in Foxborough.

For the Colts, they live and die by the play of Manning. Their rushing attack is basically nonexistent, averaging a diminutive 80.9 yards per game and 3.5 YPC. Of course, Manning's name is near the top of the list in almost every passing category. He completed 68.8% of his passes (2nd), has a 99.9 passer rating (6th), 33 touchdowns (T-2nd), and 4,500 yards (2nd) despite sitting in the final few games. He has been sacked just 10 times in 581 dropbacks, an absolutely ridiculous ratio. However, he has thrown 16 interceptions, which ties him with Matt Cassel for seventh most in the league. The Ravens recorded a mediocre 32 sacks this season, but tallied 22 picks, tying them with Carolina for the fifth most in the NFL. However, they have yielded 3,419 yards through the air, placing them in 18th, far off from last year's 2,875 yards and 52.3% completion rate.

Offensively, it's no secret what the Ravens plan to do. They like to pound the rock. This season, they ran the ball 468 times, compared to just 510 pass attempts, a balanced ratio in today's pass-happy league. This formula has led to 4.7 YPC (4th) and 22 TD's (T-1st). Indianapolis will be forced to stack the box, daring sophomore Joe Flacco to air it out. Teams have ran with relative success against Indianapolis, averaging 4.3 YPC. This will be the key to Sunday's battle. If Indy can restrict Baltimore's rushing game, then they should have no trouble stopping Flacco. And if the offense stalls, Baltimore will be in a tough spot trying to play from behind. If they are forced to drop back and throw, Flacco will be at the mercy of the pass rushing duo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combined for 23 sacks this year. The pressure caused by these two has led to a TD:INT ratio of 19:16, which is pretty good to say the least.

Baltimore's defense is not at the level its name is associated with. If their 2008 defense was playing, I would give them the edge. But, Indy is just too strong offensively. The Ravens will put points on the board with their running game. However, the NFL's MVP will be able to outperform his rival Tom Brady, despite the comparisons made between them. The Colts win thanks to their high-flying offense, if, and only if, Manning stays healthy.

Prediction: IND 27 BAL 17