The Inaugural Podcast

As a new medium for enlightening the masses, the guru has moved into the world of podcasting. Teaming up with fantasy experts BirdofPrey18 and Mac Attack, he has joined the Triple Option, a talk show hosted by three of the world's premiere sports analysts. The inaugural episode was recorded this afternoon. The trio discussed the NFL Wildcard Round, the Winter Classic, and the BCS National Championship. A link to the podcast can be found here.

Super Bowl XLIV

NFL.com

It's here. After six months of anticipation and projections since NFL training camps opened in late July, it is now time for the climax of the season, the Super Bowl. (Shame on anyone who thought I was discussing the Pro Bowl.) The guru's immediate post-Brett-Favre as a Viking prediction called for a matchup between San Diego and Minnesota, in which the Chargers would be victorious. This early prognostication, made in August, fell just three wins short of coming true. The stars have aligned to feature a matchup of two of the NFL's most prolific passing attacks, setting the stage for an inevitable offensive shootout. Peyton Manning leads his Indianapolis Colts, fresh off of slicing through the league's top passing defense, against the high-octane offense of the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans, playing in the first Super Bowl in the 43-year history of the franchise, combines an explosive passing attack with an electric, although leaky, defense. Sean Payton, in his fourth year as head coach brings a playcalling method that holds nothing back. They will need his aggression if they want any chance of slowing down Indianapolis. As proven by the Jets in the AFC Championship, the best way to counter the Colts' offense is to get in Manning's face early and often. Also proven in that game, Manning cannot be stopped for long; it's only a matter of time before he figures out the blitzes and coverages and begins to dissect a defense. For the Saints to succeed, they will need to confuse Manning early and light up the scoreboard from the opening kickoff. Easier said than done.

Offensively, the Saints have the personnel to hang with anyone. Their first option is to air it out with Drew Brees, only the second quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 5,000 yards in a single season. If their opponent manages to limit the aerial attack, they are fully capable of pounding the rock with bruising running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell or dumping it off to the dynamic Reggie Bush. The Saints have too many weapons for defenses to halt their march into the endzone. (Get it?)

On the other sideline, Manning orchestrates an equally explosive offensive onslaught. While the Colts’ running game presents little threat (NFL worst 80.9 yards per game), the passing game is as versatile as they come. As All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis suffocated #1 receiver Reggie Wayne, Manning connected with the rest of this deep receiving corps. Pierre Garcon, second-year man out of Mount Union, led the way with an AFC Championship record 11 receptions and 151 yards against the Jets. Rookie Austin Collie, taken in the 4th round out of BYU, contributed 123 yards of his own. Tight end Dallas Clark, who caught over 100 balls in the regular season, chipped in with 4 receptions and a touchdown as Manning made due (and then some) without his top target.

The Saints’ defense was one of the most exciting to watch this season, recording 26 interceptions and 35 sacks, ranking among the league's best in both categories. These stats have caused many fans, particularly those who saw New Orleans turn in a #4 finish in the world of fantasy, just four points shy of #1, to believe they are one of the league’s best units. Those viewers are sadly mistaken. The Saints allowed 122.2 yards per game rushing, ranking them 21st in the league. This included the league’s 5th worst 4.5 YPC . They conceded 235.6 yards per game through the air, 26th in the NFL. While they may have forced many turnovers, they were unable to play shutdown defense. Their aggression will benefit them against Indianapolis, but if Manning can protect the ball, Indy should have no trouble moving the chains.

Indianapolis’ defense has improved from the heavily maligned squad of 2008, however they are still a liability. They rank 14th in pass defense, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.8% of their attempts, 7th worst in the league. This will haunt them against Drew Brees, who set the NFL record for single season completion percentage with 70.6%. Allowing 4.3 YPC, they were one of only ten teams to concede over 2,000 yards on the ground in 2009. Their interception and sack totals, which rely heavily on the pass rushing abilities of Dwight Freeney, were mediocre. Freeney is officially listed as questionable on the NFL Injury Report (link in the sidebar on the right) with what some call a sprain and others call a torn ligament in his ankle. Should Freeney be limited, the Saints would gain a tremendous edge.

Pierre vs. Pierre

Oddly enough, both teams possess players with the first name “Pierre.” Garcon, of the Colts, will likely play a major role in Indianapolis’ offense, but don’t expect the same level of stats he put up against the Jets. Reggie Wayne is Manning’s favorite receiver, who will be targeted more often now that he won’t be facing shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Thomas, of the Saints, will be licking his chops to plow through Indy’s undersized front seven. After facing the stout run defense of Minnesota, the PT Cruiser (nickname not concocted by the guru) will gash the Colts’ D for considerable chunks of yardage.

Predictions:

Garcon: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown

Thomas: 12 carries, 73 yards, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 1 touchdown

Reggie vs. Reggie

Again both offenses rely on playmakers that share first names. Bush, of the Saints, is a dynamic return man. His elusiveness may lead to some long kick returns. I do not believe he will be effective running the ball because Indy’s front seven is among the fastest in the league. They will be able to contain him more effectively than some of the bigger, slower linebacking corps he has faced recently. Wayne, of the Colts, is likely to have a monstrous game. Removed from the unbreakable coverage of Revis, Manning will be able to target the New Orleans native more often.

Predictions:

Bush: 5 carries, 18 yards, 6 receptions, 54 yards, tons of return yards, 1 touchdown

Wayne: 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown

Peyton vs. Payton

Manning was held under 300 yards just twice in the first ten games, once in a 299 yard effort against Baltimore and the other in a 42-6 win over St. Louis. He will reach that marker with ease if he is not challenged by the playcalling of Sean Payton and his coordinators.

Predictions:

Manning: 30/42, 312 yards, 3 touchdowns,

Sean and Co.: 4 sacks, 1 interception

Turnovers will be the key to Sunday’s battle. These offenses are near locks to score when presented with a short field. The Saints were outgained 475-257 by Minnesota in the NFC Championship. They escaped by the skin of their teeth by forcing five turnovers, including an interception on what might go down as Brett Favre’s last career pass.

Indianapolis set the NFL record with a 23 game winning streak. They have not lost any game in which they gave maximum effort. The lead will change hands many times, but at the end of the day, the Colts will be Super Bowl Champions.

Prediction: IND 37 NO 31

NFC Championship

The guru is issuing a warning to all citizens of New Orleans: Watch out for shrapnel from the inevitable explosion of the Superdome. Sunday's NFC Championship may become of the most exciting games in recent memory. The offenses are high-powered. The defenses are electric. The storyline is incomparable. Do not miss this game.

Minnesota's skill players will have trouble hearing Favre's audibles as the crazed fans of Louisiana will raise the decibel level inside the enclosed stadium. If this forces the Vikings to simplify their playcalling, they will have no hesitation to put the ball in the hands of Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson. While his 5th place finish in rushing yards was disappointing, much of the blame can be put on the offensive line, who were continually overpowered by opposing defenses. Peterson's ability to stay on his feet after contact and plow ahead for additional yards will pay dividends against a New Orleans defense starting defensive tackles Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele, both weighing in at over 300 pounds. After unleashing Peterson on the Saints, who allow 4.5 YPC, Favre should see some open passing lanes to exploit. The ageless wonder may be missing his most explosive receiver, rookie Percy Harvin, who is listed on the Injury Report (link in the sidebar to the right) as questionable. Should Harvin be unable to play, the Vikings can still hurt the Saints with Sidney Rice and receiving tight end Vishante Shiancoe.

Drew Brees is at the helm of the NFL's most powerful offense. In 2008, Brees became the 2nd quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 5,000 yards in a season. A more balanced attack this year has caused a decline in yardage, but the potential remains. New Orleans is fully capable of picking apart Minnesota's 19th ranked pass defense. Defensive end Jared Allen creates problems for an offense that doesn't run with regularity. Minnesota finished the season with one of the league's most impressive run defenses. But linebacker E.J. Henderson was lost to a gruesome leg injury in early December.

Points will be plentiful. There will be turnovers. Harvin and Reggie Bush are ridiculously explosive. Both teams have Pro Bowlers in the secondary.

Prediction: NO 34 MIN 27

NFC Divisional Round

Last week's NFC Wild Card Round included a game played by two of the most bitter rivals in the league, Dallas and Philadelphia. Their history is filled with a strong hatred of each other, and last Saturday marked the second time the teams had met in as many weeks. However, that matchup is now completely overshadowed, a strange feeling for America's Team, by the epic quarterback duel between future Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner's Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers' Brett, excuse me, Aaron Rodgers. The teams combined for 96 points and 801 passing yards, while only one interception was tossed. Last week featured a game for the ages; will history repeat itself this week as Arizona takes on the high-octane New Orleans Saints?

Saturday, New Orleans hosts the Cards at the Superdome, a perfect venue for more passing records to be set. It sure is hard to doubt a team that put up 51 points against the NFL's #2 defense, but the guru does not believe a second straight NFC Championship game is in the Cards. (Get it?)

As previously mentioned, Warner torched the Packers' secondary, ranked 5th in the league, for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. He completed 29 of 33 passes for a rating of 154.1, 2nd best in postseason history. He was sacked just once and didn't throw a single pick. He got some help from the Cardinals' suddenly lively backfield, who contributed 156 yards on the ground. These ridiculous stats came without star wide receiver Anquan Boldin, against a Green Bay defense ranked 2nd in total D, 5th in passing defense, and 1st in the rushing game. The Packers recorded 37 regular season sacks and picked off 30 passes, the most in the NFL. So yeah, the Cardinals offense is pretty good. But they have another formidable adversary to face, the Saints defense. New Orleans has 35 sacks and 26 interceptions of their own, against just 15 passing touchdowns. They should offer some resistance to Warner's crew, especially if Boldin does not play. (A link to the official NFL Injury Report can be found in the sidebar on the right, along with some other interesting websites.)

New Orleans' offense is among the most potent in league history, averaging over 40o yards per game. They are led by super-accurate passer (Click on that link.) Drew Brees, whose 18,298 passing yards over the past four seasons, including 5,069 in 2008, rank second to none. This aerial barrage is even more daunting than that of the Pack, who put up 422 passing yards of their own last week. New Orleans also earned the league's #6 rushing offense, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Cardinals rank 17th in the running game, yielding 112.8 yards per game and 4.5 YPC. With three members of the secondary listed on the Injury Report, Arizona is going to have a tough challenge slowing down the Saints' march.

The Saints started the season 13-0, but lost the final three games, causing many analysts to believe they aren't at the top of their game. You can be sure the players have heard this and that they want to silence the critics. Remember Brees is only the second QB, behind only Dan Marino, to pass for over 5,000 yards in a single season. Arizona let Green Bay throw for 422 yards and four touchdowns only a week ago. Since then the Cardinals have been roughed up, while the Saints have had extra time to rest and heal.

Prediction: NO 37 ARI 34

On Sunday, the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys will pay a visit to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The media is excessively critical of the Cowboys' ability to win in December and January, but their recent play has seemed to silence the critics. Something you haven't heard, however, is that Minnesota has not won a home playoff game since the 2000 season. But the Vikings never had a leader quite like Brett Favre playing quarterback.

Dallas' passing offense is ranked 6th in the league, averaging 267.9 yards per game. They have thrown for 26 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Minnesota has recorded 48 sacks this year, tops in the NFL. Their pass rush is led by DE Jared Allen, whose 14.5 sacks put him just shy of Elvis Dumervil for the league lead. Surprisingly, this heavy pressure has not led to many turnovers. The Vikings have only tallied 11 interceptions, one of the lowest totals in the league. They conceded the 19th most yards this season (3,494) and allowed the eighth highest completion percentage (63.7). Dallas' three-pronged rushing attack is one of the NFL's most dominant, accumulating the seventh most yards (2,103) and the third highest YPC (4.8). The Vikings' run defense is one of the game's most fearsome, conceding just 87.1 yards per game, finishing behind only division rival Green Bay. They allow just 3.9 YPC, tying them with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for 5th in the league. Their five touchdowns against ties them with the Packers for the NFL's lowest total.

Brett Favre has revitalized the passing attack in Minnesota, leading the Vikings to 259.8 yards per game through the air, up from 184.8 in 2008. Wide receiver Sidney Rice has broken out to become one of the game's elite. He caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards, fourth most in the league. Dallas' pass defense ranks one spot behind Minnesota at #20. They have recorded 42 sacks this season, including 11 from OLB DeMarcus Ware. They have forced the same 11 interceptions as the Vikings, but have yielded seven less aerial touchdowns. Minnesota relies on Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson, whose 18 rushing TD's were the most in the league. He ran for over 1,300 yards and averaged 4.4 YPC. He is what makes this offense go. Dallas has been stout against the run this season, allowing only 90.5 yards per game, fourth in the NFL. Opposing teams average just 4.0 YPC against the Cowboys and have only scored 7 rushing TD's.

These two teams look a lot alike. Both have playoff trouble and mediocre pass defenses. Both excel at rushing the passer and stopping the run. Both can get it done in the air or on the ground. Both have explosive offensive weapons in Minnesota's Percy Harvin and Dallas' Felix Jones. The guru gives the edge to Dallas for their recent success. They seemed to have peaked at the right time, for once.

Prediction: DAL 27 MIN 20