The Inaugural Podcast

As a new medium for enlightening the masses, the guru has moved into the world of podcasting. Teaming up with fantasy experts BirdofPrey18 and Mac Attack, he has joined the Triple Option, a talk show hosted by three of the world's premiere sports analysts. The inaugural episode was recorded this afternoon. The trio discussed the NFL Wildcard Round, the Winter Classic, and the BCS National Championship. A link to the podcast can be found here.

AFC Championship

Sunday's game between the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts will be contested by two completely contrasting teams. The Colts, coming off of a near-undefeated season, rely on the arm of Peyton Manning to outscore opponents. The Jets, who limped into the playoffs at 9-7, prefer to pound the ball up the middle and play shutdown defense. The AFC Championship will tell if Manning's air-it-out style can move the chains against Darrelle Revis and Co.

The Colts' offense is engineered for one purpose, letting Manning drop back and throw. Their running game is virtually nonexistent, averaging an unheard of 1.7 YPC against Baltimore. Against an aggressive Rex Ryan defense, the Colts' inability to run will resurface. Should Revis neutralize the dynamic Reggie Wayne, Manning will have to look at the rest of his deep receiving corps. More than likely, he will like what he sees. Between Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon (Mt. Union grad, more on that in the upcoming weeks), and Austin Collie, the Colts have the depth, despite being without the reliable Anthony Gonzalez, to challenge New York's top-ranked pass defense.

Mark Sanchez has matured at an astounding rate for a rookie QB, a pattern that must continue for the Jets' hopes to stay alive. Without a doubt, the backfield combination of Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will pound through Indianapolis' undersized defense, but the Jets cannot afford to be one-dimensional. Sanchez will need to prove that he can hurt a defense through the air in order for Greene and Jones to see open running lanes. Part of Sanchez' success will rely on the hands of Braylon Edwards, who has shown inconsistency when it comes to catching a football. Look for tight end Dustin Keller to play a major role in New York's offensive gameplan.

The stats don't favor New York, but they seem to play with a grudge due to being continually counted out. The key stat lies in the Jets' inability to outscore Manning. They have only eclipsed the 30 point mark twice this season, once against the dysfunctional Raiders and another time in a meaningless Week 17 matchup with Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Colts have reached that plateau seven times thus far.

Will the football gods punish Indianapolis for ignoring a perfect season and granting New York free access to the postseason? Or will the Peyton Manning have a chance to become the first MVP to take home the Lombardi Trophy since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXIII? The guru predicts an Indianapolis victory. But it should be noted that, despite a 4-0 record on Saturdays, the guru has yet to accurately predict a winner on Sunday.

Prediction: IND 27 NYJ 17

AFC Divisional Round

This past weekend, we watched both AFC Wild Card teams advance from the opening round of the playoffs. As I predicted in the AFC Wild Card Round post, the Jets overtook the AFC North champion Bengals. However, unforeseen by the guru, the AFC East champion Patriots were trounced at home by Baltimore. More division champions await the victors, as the Chargers and Colts play host to the Wild Card teams this week.

This Sunday, the Jets travel to San Diego to face the red hot Chargers, who have won eleven consecutive games. These two teams have not met since 2008, when the Chargers walked all over the New York Bretts. This week's matchup should look entirely different, given New York's additions of Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and others. Sanchez returns to So Cal for the second time since he left USC to enter the NFL. In his other appearance, albeit against the Raiders, Sanchez posted a passer rating of 114 and rushed for a touchdown.

Offensively, the Jets should have little trouble running against the Chargers' 20th ranked rush defense, who let up 4.5 YPC. They have allowed over 100 yards on the ground to six of their last seven opponents, the lone exception being the incompetent Redskins. San Diego's secondary is statistically mediocre, however they should have no problem defending the Jets passing attack. While Sanchez certainly showed great poise last week against Cincinnati, his stats were heavily padded by terrific runs after the catch by his receivers. His supposed top target, Braylon Edwards, will be in court this week facing assault charges. Edwards, who was acquired from Cleveland midway through the season, has already eclipsed Dick Clark as the Big Apple's biggest ball dropper.

San Diego has the most explosive offense New York has seen in quite some time. (No, the Curtis Painter led Colts don't count.) Philip Rivers garnered some MVP buzz this season, as he owned the NFL's 3rd best passer rating behind only Drew Brees and Brett Favre. He led the Chargers to the NFL's 5th best passing offense, tossing only nine picks in 486 attempts. While Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis has been spectacular this season, he will be challenged by the size of receiver Vincent Jackson (6'5" 230 lbs), who tied for ninth in the league with 1,167 receiving yards. Tight end Antonio Gates finished right behind Jackson with 1,157 yards of his own. He combines his size (6'4" 260 lbs) with tremendous athletic ability, making him a matchup nightmare in the redzone. The running game took a massive step backwards this season finishing 31st in yards with the league's worst 3.3 YPC. However, if the Jets blitz Rivers, he's more than content to dump it off to RB Darren Sproles, affectionately nicknamed the Pocket Rocket for his elusiveness.

The Jets had the NFL's best pass defense in the regular season, but Rivers averaged 333 yards per game against the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, ranked 3rd-5th in the league, respectively. (The AFC North is tougher than people seem to think.) Keep in mind that New York's stats were padded by playing eight games in the harsh climate of East Rutherford, NJ. Sunday's game will be played in sunny California. I believe the Chargers will be too much for the Jets to handle.

Prediction: SD 27 NYJ 20

Playing in the post-college football Saturday time slot, the Ravens pay a visit to Indianapolis to face Peyton & Co. We all know the story. Indy had a shot at the record books by going undefeated, but decided that Manning's health (and 100 catches for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) was more important. On the contrary, Baltimore squeaked into the playoffs by winning a complex set of tiebreakers with Pittsburgh and Houston, although it sure didn't look that way Sunday in Foxborough.

For the Colts, they live and die by the play of Manning. Their rushing attack is basically nonexistent, averaging a diminutive 80.9 yards per game and 3.5 YPC. Of course, Manning's name is near the top of the list in almost every passing category. He completed 68.8% of his passes (2nd), has a 99.9 passer rating (6th), 33 touchdowns (T-2nd), and 4,500 yards (2nd) despite sitting in the final few games. He has been sacked just 10 times in 581 dropbacks, an absolutely ridiculous ratio. However, he has thrown 16 interceptions, which ties him with Matt Cassel for seventh most in the league. The Ravens recorded a mediocre 32 sacks this season, but tallied 22 picks, tying them with Carolina for the fifth most in the NFL. However, they have yielded 3,419 yards through the air, placing them in 18th, far off from last year's 2,875 yards and 52.3% completion rate.

Offensively, it's no secret what the Ravens plan to do. They like to pound the rock. This season, they ran the ball 468 times, compared to just 510 pass attempts, a balanced ratio in today's pass-happy league. This formula has led to 4.7 YPC (4th) and 22 TD's (T-1st). Indianapolis will be forced to stack the box, daring sophomore Joe Flacco to air it out. Teams have ran with relative success against Indianapolis, averaging 4.3 YPC. This will be the key to Sunday's battle. If Indy can restrict Baltimore's rushing game, then they should have no trouble stopping Flacco. And if the offense stalls, Baltimore will be in a tough spot trying to play from behind. If they are forced to drop back and throw, Flacco will be at the mercy of the pass rushing duo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combined for 23 sacks this year. The pressure caused by these two has led to a TD:INT ratio of 19:16, which is pretty good to say the least.

Baltimore's defense is not at the level its name is associated with. If their 2008 defense was playing, I would give them the edge. But, Indy is just too strong offensively. The Ravens will put points on the board with their running game. However, the NFL's MVP will be able to outperform his rival Tom Brady, despite the comparisons made between them. The Colts win thanks to their high-flying offense, if, and only if, Manning stays healthy.

Prediction: IND 27 BAL 17

AFC Wild Card Round

Going into Week 17, seven teams were in contention for the two AFC Wild Card spots. Analysts were in heaven, simulating every scenario and obsessing over the complex tiebreaking procedures. Entering Sunday with a "win and you're in" situation, both the Ravens and Jets emerged from the rubble to claim playoff berths. The AFC division leaders can take a deep sigh of relief as the Steelers, clearly the most dangerous team in contention, have been eliminated, despite Jeff Reed's two fourth quarter field goals. Warning to all Pittsburgh area convenience stores: Fill your paper towel dispensers! And to answer your question, that's a picture of Reed, not a random, burnt out, middle-aged beach bum.

The AFC Wild Card features another rematch from Week 17 as the Bengals host the Jets. In what was a meaningless game for Cincinnati, the Jets cruised (lame joke) to a 37-0 victory. Sunday's game marked the first time that the Bengals have been shut out since 2001, when the Super Bowl champion Ravens held them scoreless.

The key matchup will be New York's league leading rushing offense against a tough Cincinnati defense allowing 3.9 YPC. The Jets will likely limit QB Mark Sanchez to game manager mode. He has only attempted more than 20 passes once in his last five starts.

Offensively, the Bengals rely on the play of resurgent running back Cedric Benson, who sat out last week's matchup to rest for the playoffs. He is eighth in the league with 1,251 rushing yards, despite only playing in 13 games. Carson Palmer's performance (or lack there of) was disastrous in the harsh climate of East Rutherford, NJ. He completed 1 of 11 passes for 0 (not a typo) yards with one interception. That earned him a comically low QB rating of 1.7. Number 1 receiver Chad Ochocinco was completely shut down by Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis, but as usual Ochocinco had no trouble making excuses, attributing his poor performance to a knee injury. “Whether I had one leg or not, Darrelle did a great job.” Revis has shut down elite receivers all season, leading a Jets secondary allowing a league low 153.7 yards per game.

New York has allowed just 3.8 YPC this season, good enough for #4 in the NFL. They should have no problems containing Benson once the secondary shuts down the Bengals' struggling passing attack. With Ochocinco blanketed by Revis, Palmer will rely on former Jet Laveranues Coles, who has disappointed so far this season. When Sanchez and the offense take the field, Cincinnati will be able to stack the box. However, the Jets deeper backfield will outlast Benson, who will receive nearly all of the Bengals' carries. New York will win the impending battle of attrition.

Prediction: NJY 17 CIN 10

The AFC East champion New England Patriots will host Baltimore this weekend. These two teams met on October 4th in Foxborough, where Tom Brady led the Pats to a 27-21 victory. For those of you who value the complete history, the Ravens have lost all five meetings between these clubs, none of which occurred in the playoffs.

This week's matchup will feature the Patriots' 3rd ranked offense against Baltimore's 3rd ranked defense. Tom Brady will be without Wes Welker, who leads the NFL with 123 receptions. Baltimore will be able to roll coverage towards Randy Moss, who is tied for the league lead with 13 receiving touchdowns. New England's underrated rushing attack will have to step up against the Raven's D, who are allowing a league low 3.4 YPC.

Baltimore has the league's 5th ranked rushing attack, averaging over 130 yards per game and 4.7 YPC. New England can be run on, allowing 4.4 YPC, including a 6.8 YPC showing in the regular season contest between these two clubs. Joe Flacco has only eclipsed 200 passing yards nine times this season, and only five times in his last ten games.

This game will likely come down to the ability of Patriot receivers Julian Edelman and Sam Aiken to fill the void left by Welker. Expect Brady to target tight end Benjamin Watson early and often. In Weeks 12-16, New England rushed for 715 yards, a terrific 143 yards per game.

The key for the Ravens is for Flacco and the receiving corps to connect early, forcing the Pats to respect the pass. Otherwise, New England will stack the box and shut down Baltimore's dynamic backfield.

Prediction: NE 20 BAL 13