Super Bowl XLIV

NFL.com

It's here. After six months of anticipation and projections since NFL training camps opened in late July, it is now time for the climax of the season, the Super Bowl. (Shame on anyone who thought I was discussing the Pro Bowl.) The guru's immediate post-Brett-Favre as a Viking prediction called for a matchup between San Diego and Minnesota, in which the Chargers would be victorious. This early prognostication, made in August, fell just three wins short of coming true. The stars have aligned to feature a matchup of two of the NFL's most prolific passing attacks, setting the stage for an inevitable offensive shootout. Peyton Manning leads his Indianapolis Colts, fresh off of slicing through the league's top passing defense, against the high-octane offense of the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans, playing in the first Super Bowl in the 43-year history of the franchise, combines an explosive passing attack with an electric, although leaky, defense. Sean Payton, in his fourth year as head coach brings a playcalling method that holds nothing back. They will need his aggression if they want any chance of slowing down Indianapolis. As proven by the Jets in the AFC Championship, the best way to counter the Colts' offense is to get in Manning's face early and often. Also proven in that game, Manning cannot be stopped for long; it's only a matter of time before he figures out the blitzes and coverages and begins to dissect a defense. For the Saints to succeed, they will need to confuse Manning early and light up the scoreboard from the opening kickoff. Easier said than done.

Offensively, the Saints have the personnel to hang with anyone. Their first option is to air it out with Drew Brees, only the second quarterback in NFL history to eclipse 5,000 yards in a single season. If their opponent manages to limit the aerial attack, they are fully capable of pounding the rock with bruising running backs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell or dumping it off to the dynamic Reggie Bush. The Saints have too many weapons for defenses to halt their march into the endzone. (Get it?)

On the other sideline, Manning orchestrates an equally explosive offensive onslaught. While the Colts’ running game presents little threat (NFL worst 80.9 yards per game), the passing game is as versatile as they come. As All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis suffocated #1 receiver Reggie Wayne, Manning connected with the rest of this deep receiving corps. Pierre Garcon, second-year man out of Mount Union, led the way with an AFC Championship record 11 receptions and 151 yards against the Jets. Rookie Austin Collie, taken in the 4th round out of BYU, contributed 123 yards of his own. Tight end Dallas Clark, who caught over 100 balls in the regular season, chipped in with 4 receptions and a touchdown as Manning made due (and then some) without his top target.

The Saints’ defense was one of the most exciting to watch this season, recording 26 interceptions and 35 sacks, ranking among the league's best in both categories. These stats have caused many fans, particularly those who saw New Orleans turn in a #4 finish in the world of fantasy, just four points shy of #1, to believe they are one of the league’s best units. Those viewers are sadly mistaken. The Saints allowed 122.2 yards per game rushing, ranking them 21st in the league. This included the league’s 5th worst 4.5 YPC . They conceded 235.6 yards per game through the air, 26th in the NFL. While they may have forced many turnovers, they were unable to play shutdown defense. Their aggression will benefit them against Indianapolis, but if Manning can protect the ball, Indy should have no trouble moving the chains.

Indianapolis’ defense has improved from the heavily maligned squad of 2008, however they are still a liability. They rank 14th in pass defense, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.8% of their attempts, 7th worst in the league. This will haunt them against Drew Brees, who set the NFL record for single season completion percentage with 70.6%. Allowing 4.3 YPC, they were one of only ten teams to concede over 2,000 yards on the ground in 2009. Their interception and sack totals, which rely heavily on the pass rushing abilities of Dwight Freeney, were mediocre. Freeney is officially listed as questionable on the NFL Injury Report (link in the sidebar on the right) with what some call a sprain and others call a torn ligament in his ankle. Should Freeney be limited, the Saints would gain a tremendous edge.

Pierre vs. Pierre

Oddly enough, both teams possess players with the first name “Pierre.” Garcon, of the Colts, will likely play a major role in Indianapolis’ offense, but don’t expect the same level of stats he put up against the Jets. Reggie Wayne is Manning’s favorite receiver, who will be targeted more often now that he won’t be facing shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Thomas, of the Saints, will be licking his chops to plow through Indy’s undersized front seven. After facing the stout run defense of Minnesota, the PT Cruiser (nickname not concocted by the guru) will gash the Colts’ D for considerable chunks of yardage.

Predictions:

Garcon: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown

Thomas: 12 carries, 73 yards, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 1 touchdown

Reggie vs. Reggie

Again both offenses rely on playmakers that share first names. Bush, of the Saints, is a dynamic return man. His elusiveness may lead to some long kick returns. I do not believe he will be effective running the ball because Indy’s front seven is among the fastest in the league. They will be able to contain him more effectively than some of the bigger, slower linebacking corps he has faced recently. Wayne, of the Colts, is likely to have a monstrous game. Removed from the unbreakable coverage of Revis, Manning will be able to target the New Orleans native more often.

Predictions:

Bush: 5 carries, 18 yards, 6 receptions, 54 yards, tons of return yards, 1 touchdown

Wayne: 7 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown

Peyton vs. Payton

Manning was held under 300 yards just twice in the first ten games, once in a 299 yard effort against Baltimore and the other in a 42-6 win over St. Louis. He will reach that marker with ease if he is not challenged by the playcalling of Sean Payton and his coordinators.

Predictions:

Manning: 30/42, 312 yards, 3 touchdowns,

Sean and Co.: 4 sacks, 1 interception

Turnovers will be the key to Sunday’s battle. These offenses are near locks to score when presented with a short field. The Saints were outgained 475-257 by Minnesota in the NFC Championship. They escaped by the skin of their teeth by forcing five turnovers, including an interception on what might go down as Brett Favre’s last career pass.

Indianapolis set the NFL record with a 23 game winning streak. They have not lost any game in which they gave maximum effort. The lead will change hands many times, but at the end of the day, the Colts will be Super Bowl Champions.

Prediction: IND 37 NO 31