This Sunday, the Jets travel to San Diego to face the red hot Chargers, who have won eleven consecutive games. These two teams have not met since 2008, when the Chargers walked all over the New York Bretts. This week's matchup should look entirely different, given New York's additions of Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, and others. Sanchez returns to So Cal for the second time since he left USC to enter the NFL. In his other appearance, albeit against the Raiders, Sanchez posted a passer rating of 114 and rushed for a touchdown.
Offensively, the Jets should have little trouble running against the Chargers' 20th ranked rush defense, who let up 4.5 YPC. They have allowed over 100 yards on the ground to six of their last seven opponents, the lone exception being the incompetent Redskins. San Diego's secondary is statistically mediocre, however they should have no problem defending the Jets passing attack. While Sanchez certainly showed great poise last week against Cincinnati, his stats were heavily padded by terrific runs after the catch by his receivers. His supposed top target, Braylon Edwards, will be in court this week facing assault charges. Edwards, who was acquired from Cleveland midway through the season, has already eclipsed Dick Clark as the Big Apple's biggest ball dropper.
San Diego has the most explosive offense New York has seen in quite some time. (No, the Curtis Painter led Colts don't count.) Philip Rivers garnered some MVP buzz this season, as he owned the NFL's 3rd best passer rating behind only Drew Brees and Brett Favre. He led the Chargers to the NFL's 5th best passing offense, tossing only nine picks in 486 attempts. While Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis has been spectacular this season, he will be challenged by the size of receiver Vincent Jackson (6'5" 230 lbs), who tied for ninth in the league with 1,167 receiving yards. Tight end Antonio Gates finished right behind Jackson with 1,157 yards of his own. He combines his size (6'4" 260 lbs) with tremendous athletic ability, making him a matchup nightmare in the redzone. The running game took a massive step backwards this season finishing 31st in yards with the league's worst 3.3 YPC. However, if the Jets blitz Rivers, he's more than content to dump it off to RB Darren Sproles, affectionately nicknamed the Pocket Rocket for his elusiveness.
The Jets had the NFL's best pass defense in the regular season, but Rivers averaged 333 yards per game against the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, ranked 3rd-5th in the league, respectively. (The AFC North is tougher than people seem to think.) Keep in mind that New York's stats were padded by playing eight games in the harsh climate of East Rutherford, NJ. Sunday's game will be played in sunny California. I believe the Chargers will be too much for the Jets to handle.
Prediction: SD 27 NYJ 20
Playing in the post-college football Saturday time slot, the Ravens pay a visit to Indianapolis to face Peyton & Co. We all know the story. Indy had a shot at the record books by going undefeated, but decided that Manning's health (and 100 catches for Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) was more important. On the contrary, Baltimore squeaked into the playoffs by winning a complex set of tiebreakers with Pittsburgh and Houston, although it sure didn't look that way Sunday in Foxborough.
For the Colts, they live and die by the play of Manning. Their rushing attack is basically nonexistent, averaging a diminutive 80.9 yards per game and 3.5 YPC. Of course, Manning's name is near the top of the list in almost every passing category. He completed 68.8% of his passes (2nd), has a 99.9 passer rating (6th), 33 touchdowns (T-2nd), and 4,500 yards (2nd) despite sitting in the final few games. He has been sacked just 10 times in 581 dropbacks, an absolutely ridiculous ratio. However, he has thrown 16 interceptions, which ties him with Matt Cassel for seventh most in the league. The Ravens recorded a mediocre 32 sacks this season, but tallied 22 picks, tying them with Carolina for the fifth most in the NFL. However, they have yielded 3,419 yards through the air, placing them in 18th, far off from last year's 2,875 yards and 52.3% completion rate.
Offensively, it's no secret what the Ravens plan to do. They like to pound the rock. This season, they ran the ball 468 times, compared to just 510 pass attempts, a balanced ratio in today's pass-happy league. This formula has led to 4.7 YPC (4th) and 22 TD's (T-1st). Indianapolis will be forced to stack the box, daring sophomore Joe Flacco to air it out. Teams have ran with relative success against Indianapolis, averaging 4.3 YPC. This will be the key to Sunday's battle. If Indy can restrict Baltimore's rushing game, then they should have no trouble stopping Flacco. And if the offense stalls, Baltimore will be in a tough spot trying to play from behind. If they are forced to drop back and throw, Flacco will be at the mercy of the pass rushing duo of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combined for 23 sacks this year. The pressure caused by these two has led to a TD:INT ratio of 19:16, which is pretty good to say the least.
Baltimore's defense is not at the level its name is associated with. If their 2008 defense was playing, I would give them the edge. But, Indy is just too strong offensively. The Ravens will put points on the board with their running game. However, the NFL's MVP will be able to outperform his rival Tom Brady, despite the comparisons made between them. The Colts win thanks to their high-flying offense, if, and only if, Manning stays healthy.
Prediction: IND 27 BAL 17
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