2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part VI

After an embarrassing miscall on the Hawaii Bowl and getting burnt by a last-second, game-winning field goal in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, the guru was very displeased with himself. He followed up the two misses, the only two of the bowl season, by ignoring the Independence Bowl. Yes, the early start time on a weekday was missed by the guru, who started his analysis at halftime. No excuse for this, totally unacceptable.

But he is hoping to bounce back with a solid prediction for the Champs Sports Bowl, which pits North Carolina State against #22 West Virginia. The game will be played Tuesday night in Orlando, far from the storm that ravaged the Northeast. Fans and players should be able to enjoy warm weather in the Sunshine State.

The Mountaineers will bring a stout defense to Orlando. They are second in the FBS in scoring defense and surrender the third least yards, allowing just 12.8 points and 251.3 yards per game. West Virginia yields only 81.5 yards per contest on the ground. Their 2.7 YPC is tied for the lowest in the country, while the three rushing touchdowns they allowed this year are only half of those allowed by second place Alabama and Clemson. The Mountaineer pass defense is equally potent. Their 10:12 TD:INT ratio is astonishing, as is their ability to stop both the run and the pass. NC State will have a tough time putting points on the board, even with their powerful offense. They led the ACC with over 280 passing yards per game, utilizing the abilities of sophomore QB Russel Wilson. However, they logged just 3.5 YPC and 125 yards per contest on the ground. Expect the Wolfpack to throw early and often against WVU.

The Mountaineers offense is an impressive unit. QB Geno Smith completed 65.0% of his passes this season for 23 TDs and only 7 INTs. Yet they prefer to move the ball on the ground. Their 501 rushing attempts are 41 more than UCONN, who rushed the second most times in the Big East. The Wolfpack secondary isn't particularly daunting. They allowed 20 touchdowns in 2010 against just 8 interceptions. Their strength lies in their run defense, which yields just 113 yards per game and 3.3 YPC.

The crucial matchup is Smith vs the NC State secondary. If the Wolfpack can contain the Mountaineer passing attack, then they should be able to stay in the game, assuming their run defense holds strong. After a poor stretch, the guru is ready to bounce back. He doesn't foresee Smith being held under 200 passing yards and a touchdown.

The guru selects WVU with 25 confidence points.