As we have seen numerous times this year, tonight's Poinsettia Bowl contest between San Diego State and Navy will played by two teams with two wildly different mindsets. The Midshipmen have long been known for their triple-option offense, a sharp contrast from the Aztecs air-it-out philosophy. When the dust settles tonight in Qualcomm Stadium (where the Aztecs play their home games) we will see which strategy proves to be superior.
As stated, Navy loves to pound the ball down their opponent's throat, employing the rushing talents of QB Ricky Dobbs. With this philosophy, the Midshipmen have earned the nation's sixth-ranked rushing attack, averaging 5.4 YPC. However, they have difficulty gaining yards through the air. Their 117 passing yards per game is the third worst in the FBS. Unfortunately for Navy, the Aztecs have a stout run defense, allowing only 3.6 YPC. In an earlier matchup against Air Force, another triple-option team, San Diego State prevailed 27-25. They conceded 312 yards on the ground, but this extreme number is due to the 62 carries they faced in that game.
On the other hand, San Diego State employs a pass-heavy offensive scheme, averaging just shy of 300 yards per game. Put alongside a rushing attack with 4.6 YPC, the Aztecs are an offense to be feared. The Midshipmen allowed their opponents to complete 67.8% of their passes this season, third worst in the country. Their run defense isn't particularly strong either, being gashed for 156 yards per game and 4.4 YPC.
Navy has had trouble playing from behind, a situation they will likely face tonight. If forced to abandon their run-heavy strategy, the Midshipmen will be in bad shape. The Aztecs enter the game on a hot streak, losing to #3 TCU and #25 Utah by a combined nine points. Navy's last game against an opponent with a winning record was played in October. Due to excessive rain, field conditions will be poor, which benefits Navy. At the end of the day, I don't believe this will help them salvage a win.
The guru selects San Diego State with 17 confidence points.
December 23, 2010
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