2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part III

Tonight's MAACO Bowl features two teams that were ranked in the nation's top ten this season, adding some excitement to a stretch of dry matchups. Or so you would think. The game has the makings of a blowout, as Boise State tries to show why they were in the national title picture just weeks ago.

Before their devastating defeat at the hands of Nevada, the Broncos were legitimate candidates to the play in the BCS title game. However, the overtime nightmare dropped the team with the blue turf to #11 in the polls and a pre-Christmas bowl game, a far cry from their BCS hopes. Utah was enjoying an undefeated season as well before a 47-7 shellacking at the hands of TCU dropped the Utes from the top ten. They followed TCU debacle with a 28-3 defeat at South Bend, showing the effects a disappointing loss can have on a team.

The stats favor Boise, and it's not even close. Offensively, the Broncos are among the nation's elite. They rushed for over 200 yards per game and 5.4 YPC, scoring 33 touchdowns on the ground. The Utes field a stout run defense, allowing slightly over 100 yards per game and just 3.0 YPC. However, their problem begins with a suspect secondary. They have allowed opponents over 200 yards per game and to complete 60% of their passes. That will be an issue against Heisman finalist Kellen Moore, whose 70.3 completion percentage is second best in the country. He has thrown 36 TDs against just five interceptions while averaging 319.4 yards per game. Advantage Broncos.

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The Boise defenders are rather impressive too, finishing fourth in the FBS in total defense. Utah is second in the Mountain West with just under 3,000 passing yards in twelve games, but they will be without starting QB Jordan Wynn, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury. Backup Terrance Cain has proven himself capable throughout his career, leading his team to a 9-1 record in his ten starts. Unfortunately for the senior Cain, his last college game will come against a Broncos defense ranked third in the country in passing defense. Boise has picked off 14 passes while allowing only 8 aerial touchdowns, a ridiculous ratio. The Utes will likely be stuffed on the ground as well, where their rushers will face a defense surrendering 2.9 YPC, fourth best in the nation.

An argument can be made that the Broncos will be dispirited and therefore play poorly, just as Utah did after their slaughter against Texas Christian. However, Boise State bounced back after their loss to beat Utah State 50-14. I believe they will be anxious to prove their imperfection was a fluke and that they should be playing in a BCS game. With all the talent on the Broncos roster, it's hard to make a case against them.

The guru selects Boise State with 32 confidence points.