Welcome to Fantasy Guru 37's Blog. I will try to post a few times per week discussing sports and their fantasy implications. I will focus primarily on the NHL, NFL, and NCAAF, however I touch upon PGA Tour golf, the NBA, and NCAAB. Your comments are always appreciated. Feel free to email me at fantasyguru37@gmail.com with any questions or feedback you may have.

December 30, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part VIII

The guru is back for today's second segment. After Kansas State and Syracuse wrap up their Pinstripe Bowl, North Carolina will do battle with Tennessee. Following that matchup will be Nebraska and Washington.

After having seven players suspended for the entire season, the Tar Heels season took a nosedive. The lone bright spot was senior QB TJ Yates, who holds 31 school records. UNC completed 67.5% of their passes this season, a very impressive number. Tennessee has been known to yield yardage through the air, but they have picked off 17 passes against just 13 TDs in 2010. If the Volunteers can limit the damage done by Yates, they will be in a position to succeed as the Tar Heels struggle in the rushing game. UNC totaled the second fewest rushing yards in the ACC and average a paltry 3.6 YPC.

At the helm of the Volunteer offense is freshman QB Tyler Bray, who has thrown for more yards than any freshman in school history, including Peyton Manning. The Vols 56.4% completion percentage is the third lowest in the SEC, but they still manage to accumulate 250 yards per game through the air. UNC has a decent secondary, allowing 19 TDs against 16 INTs. If the Tar Heels defensive backs are sharp, the team should have success because Tennessee also has a weak rushing attack. Their 116.1 rushing yards per game and 3.7 YPC are both by far the worst in the SEC.

In a game with two strong passing attacks and two anemic rushing offenses, the winner may be decided on special teams. UNC averages 9.2 yards per punt return, while Tennessee averages just 3.6. This may be the deciding factor of the game.

The guru selects UNC with 21 confidence points.

Tonight's Holiday Bowl between Nebraska and Washington should be one-sided. The Cornhuskers were one win away from a BCS bid, while Washington became bowl-eligible only after scraping past Pac-10 bottom-dweller Washington State 35-28 in their season finale. Nebraska defeated Washington 56-21 in Seattle earlier this season. Two seasons after going 0-12, the Huskies will be no match for the 'Huskers.

The guru selects Nebraska with 35 confidence points.

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part VII

Today's slate presents us with four games, the most of any day thus far. Southern Methodist and Army kick off the action at 12:00 EST in the Armed Forces Bowl, while Nebraska and Washington close out the day at 10:00 EST in the Holiday Bowl. With game previews from the guru, there is no reason to leave the house today. Just sit back and enjoy the action.

SMU and Army bring two contrasting styles of play to Dallas. The Mustangs, playing in their home stadium, love to air it out, putting up 273.8 passing yards per game. On the other hand, the Black Knights prefer to pound their opponents into submission. Their 678 rushing attempt are the third most in the FBS. Which philosophy will prove superior in the teams' first meeting since 1967? Read on to find out.

As mentioned, SMU makes their hay throwing the football. On the surface, it appears Army has a strong pass defense, but one must look further. They yield just 190.5 aerial yards per game, a respectable number, but opponents attempt less than 25 throws per game against them, meaning the Black Knights allow 7.8 yards per attempt. For those of you unfamiliar with this stat, that's not very good. Army's ball-control offense drains the clock and reduces the number of plays per game, giving the illusion they have a stout defense. That's not the case. Forcing opposing defenders to drop back into coverage, the Mustangs have gashed their opposition for 4.8 YPC. While the SMU offense may not get enough stats to produce monster stats, they will have success when they are on the field.

Like most service schools, Army utilizes a triple-option offense. But they may encounter some difficulty running the ball on SMU. The Mustangs allow just 3.7 YPC. Should Army fall behind early, a likely scenario against the SMU offense, they will struggle to catch up. They don't pass because they can't. They are the only team in the country who failed to eclipse 1,000 passing yards in 2010.

The guru selects SMU with 31 confidence points.

Playing in the Pinstripe Bowl, contested in the new Yankee Stadium, will be the Syracuse Orange and the Kansas State Wildcats. This should prove to be an interesting matchup of two teams who will run the ball down each other's throat. Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas has a bright future and will likely be playing on Sundays. Syracuse uses a two-back rotation with Delone Carter and speedster Antwon Bailey.

Offensively, the Wildcats rely on the abilities of Thomas. The senior averages over 20 carries per game and still runs for 5.3 YPC. He will undoubtedly rip off some highlight reel runs against an Orange defense that has played surprisingly well this season. Syracuse has allowed the fifth fewest yards per game in the nation, but they will struggle to contain Thomas. With the sad state of the Wildcats' passing attack, expect the Orange to stack the box with regularity.

Syracuse hasn't produced gaudy numbers on offense this season, but the stats don't do them justice. While they won't light up the scoreboard, they are capable of moving the ball efficiently, especially against a Kansas State run defense ranked 118th of 120 FBS teams. The Wildcats have been unable to stop anyone on the ground in 2010. They yield 229.1 rushing yards per game and a pitiful 5.9 YPC. Cupcake schools North Texas and Missouri State combined for 464 rushing yards against the Wildcats. Carter and Bailey will be licking their chops to gash the Kansas State front seven.

The guru selects Syracuse with 20 confidence points.

December 27, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part VI

After an embarrassing miscall on the Hawaii Bowl and getting burnt by a last-second, game-winning field goal in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, the guru was very displeased with himself. He followed up the two misses, the only two of the bowl season, by ignoring the Independence Bowl. Yes, the early start time on a weekday was missed by the guru, who started his analysis at halftime. No excuse for this, totally unacceptable.

But he is hoping to bounce back with a solid prediction for the Champs Sports Bowl, which pits North Carolina State against #22 West Virginia. The game will be played Tuesday night in Orlando, far from the storm that ravaged the Northeast. Fans and players should be able to enjoy warm weather in the Sunshine State.

The Mountaineers will bring a stout defense to Orlando. They are second in the FBS in scoring defense and surrender the third least yards, allowing just 12.8 points and 251.3 yards per game. West Virginia yields only 81.5 yards per contest on the ground. Their 2.7 YPC is tied for the lowest in the country, while the three rushing touchdowns they allowed this year are only half of those allowed by second place Alabama and Clemson. The Mountaineer pass defense is equally potent. Their 10:12 TD:INT ratio is astonishing, as is their ability to stop both the run and the pass. NC State will have a tough time putting points on the board, even with their powerful offense. They led the ACC with over 280 passing yards per game, utilizing the abilities of sophomore QB Russel Wilson. However, they logged just 3.5 YPC and 125 yards per contest on the ground. Expect the Wolfpack to throw early and often against WVU.

The Mountaineers offense is an impressive unit. QB Geno Smith completed 65.0% of his passes this season for 23 TDs and only 7 INTs. Yet they prefer to move the ball on the ground. Their 501 rushing attempts are 41 more than UCONN, who rushed the second most times in the Big East. The Wolfpack secondary isn't particularly daunting. They allowed 20 touchdowns in 2010 against just 8 interceptions. Their strength lies in their run defense, which yields just 113 yards per game and 3.3 YPC.

The crucial matchup is Smith vs the NC State secondary. If the Wolfpack can contain the Mountaineer passing attack, then they should be able to stay in the game, assuming their run defense holds strong. After a poor stretch, the guru is ready to bounce back. He doesn't foresee Smith being held under 200 passing yards and a touchdown.

The guru selects WVU with 25 confidence points.

December 24, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part V

We have seen six bowl games played out thus far in 2010, and only one of them has been decided by fewer than 20 points. This trend may be reversed as the next few games pit teams with similar styles against one another. For instance, tonight's Hawaii Bowl figures to be exciting as two of the nation's premiere offenses prepare to battle. If you love watching two high-octane attacks duke it out, make sure to tune in tonight.


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The Hawaii Warriors (playing in their home stadium) will take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in what will surely be a high-scoring affair. Hawaii boasts the nation's top-rated passing attack, averaging a ridiculous 387.8 yards per game. The Warriors should have little difficulty putting up points against the Golden Hurricane, owners of the second worst pass defense in the nation. Hawaii is more than capable of moving the ball on the ground as well, averaging 5.0 YPC. Running back Alex Green has over 1,100 yards on the season and has recorded an obscene 8.8 YPC. Likely forced to drop seven or eight defenders into coverage on most plays, Tulsa will have difficulty stopping Hawaii's running game. If the Warriors fail to score 30 points, it will be a major disappointment.

Fortunately for Tulsa, they have a potent offense themselves. They are averaging over 500 combined rushing and passing yards per game, good enough for 5th in the nation. Their rushing attack accounts for over 200 yards per game and averages 5.2 YPC. Hawaii has a stingy run defense, yielding just 3.5 YPC and and has recovered 13 fumbles on the year. The Warrior pass defense is impressive too, allowing 21 aerial touchdowns against 23 interceptions, the most in the FBS. For Tulsa to have success, they must protect the football. Hawaii's offense is too good to give any extra chances. However, avoiding turnovers is a tall task against the nation's leader in takeaways and interceptions.

For those fans interested in more than just the final score, there are plenty of other things to keep an eye on tonight. Tulsa junior Damaris Johnson is fourth on the NCAA’s career all-purpose yardage list with 7,470 yards. Johnson needs just 104 yards to pass DeAngelo Williams for third place. Hawaii WR Greg Salas needs three receptions and 39 receiving yards to break the Warriors’ single-season records in both categories. The 6'2," 210 pound has 106 receptions for 1,675 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

The guru selects Hawaii with 30 confidence points.

December 23, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part IV

As we have seen numerous times this year, tonight's Poinsettia Bowl contest between San Diego State and Navy will played by two teams with two wildly different mindsets. The Midshipmen have long been known for their triple-option offense, a sharp contrast from the Aztecs air-it-out philosophy. When the dust settles tonight in Qualcomm Stadium (where the Aztecs play their home games) we will see which strategy proves to be superior.

As stated, Navy loves to pound the ball down their opponent's throat, employing the rushing talents of QB Ricky Dobbs. With this philosophy, the Midshipmen have earned the nation's sixth-ranked rushing attack, averaging 5.4 YPC. However, they have difficulty gaining yards through the air. Their 117 passing yards per game is the third worst in the FBS. Unfortunately for Navy, the Aztecs have a stout run defense, allowing only 3.6 YPC. In an earlier matchup against Air Force, another triple-option team, San Diego State prevailed 27-25. They conceded 312 yards on the ground, but this extreme number is due to the 62 carries they faced in that game.

On the other hand, San Diego State employs a pass-heavy offensive scheme, averaging just shy of 300 yards per game. Put alongside a rushing attack with 4.6 YPC, the Aztecs are an offense to be feared. The Midshipmen allowed their opponents to complete 67.8% of their passes this season, third worst in the country. Their run defense isn't particularly strong either, being gashed for 156 yards per game and 4.4 YPC.

Navy has had trouble playing from behind, a situation they will likely face tonight. If forced to abandon their run-heavy strategy, the Midshipmen will be in bad shape. The Aztecs enter the game on a hot streak, losing to #3 TCU and #25 Utah by a combined nine points. Navy's last game against an opponent with a winning record was played in October. Due to excessive rain, field conditions will be poor, which benefits Navy. At the end of the day, I don't believe this will help them salvage a win.

The guru selects San Diego State with 17 confidence points.

December 22, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part III

Tonight's MAACO Bowl features two teams that were ranked in the nation's top ten this season, adding some excitement to a stretch of dry matchups. Or so you would think. The game has the makings of a blowout, as Boise State tries to show why they were in the national title picture just weeks ago.

Before their devastating defeat at the hands of Nevada, the Broncos were legitimate candidates to the play in the BCS title game. However, the overtime nightmare dropped the team with the blue turf to #11 in the polls and a pre-Christmas bowl game, a far cry from their BCS hopes. Utah was enjoying an undefeated season as well before a 47-7 shellacking at the hands of TCU dropped the Utes from the top ten. They followed TCU debacle with a 28-3 defeat at South Bend, showing the effects a disappointing loss can have on a team.

The stats favor Boise, and it's not even close. Offensively, the Broncos are among the nation's elite. They rushed for over 200 yards per game and 5.4 YPC, scoring 33 touchdowns on the ground. The Utes field a stout run defense, allowing slightly over 100 yards per game and just 3.0 YPC. However, their problem begins with a suspect secondary. They have allowed opponents over 200 yards per game and to complete 60% of their passes. That will be an issue against Heisman finalist Kellen Moore, whose 70.3 completion percentage is second best in the country. He has thrown 36 TDs against just five interceptions while averaging 319.4 yards per game. Advantage Broncos.

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The Boise defenders are rather impressive too, finishing fourth in the FBS in total defense. Utah is second in the Mountain West with just under 3,000 passing yards in twelve games, but they will be without starting QB Jordan Wynn, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury. Backup Terrance Cain has proven himself capable throughout his career, leading his team to a 9-1 record in his ten starts. Unfortunately for the senior Cain, his last college game will come against a Broncos defense ranked third in the country in passing defense. Boise has picked off 14 passes while allowing only 8 aerial touchdowns, a ridiculous ratio. The Utes will likely be stuffed on the ground as well, where their rushers will face a defense surrendering 2.9 YPC, fourth best in the nation.

An argument can be made that the Broncos will be dispirited and therefore play poorly, just as Utah did after their slaughter against Texas Christian. However, Boise State bounced back after their loss to beat Utah State 50-14. I believe they will be anxious to prove their imperfection was a fluke and that they should be playing in a BCS game. With all the talent on the Broncos roster, it's hard to make a case against them.

The guru selects Boise State with 32 confidence points.

December 21, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part II

After correctly predicting the winner in all three bowl games played Saturday, the guru is back to preview the always popular Beef ‘O’Brady's Bowl. The Tuesday evening matchup will be played between the Louisville Cardinals and the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. Before the Cardinals moved to the Big East, these two teams were rivals in Conference USA. Southern Miss leads the all-time series 18-9-1.

As with the New Orleans Bowl, these two teams bring contrasting styles of play to the table. Southern Miss is one of only thirteen FBS teams to average over 200 yards per game both rushing and passing. On the other sideline, the Cardinals are ranked 11th nationally in total defense, allowing just over 300 yards per game. Keep an eye on Golden Eagles QB Austin Davis, who has completed over 63% of his passses this season. His two favorite targets are WRs Kelvin Bolden and Johdrick Morris, who both caught over 40 passes in 2010. Fantasy owners may want to take a look at the 6'3" Morris, who will be licking his chops to play against a Louisville secondary lacking a CB over 5'11".

Louisville prefers to pound the ball down their opponents throat; they rushed on over 36 plays per game this season, leading the Big East with 4.9 YPC. This should create an interesting matchup considering the success of the Golden Eagles' run defense, who yield just 3.6 YPC. With a strong running game, look for the Cardinals to try and control the time of possession and keep the Southern Miss offense off of the field.

The guru selects Louisville with 9 confidence points.

December 16, 2010

2010 Bowl Season Preview: Part I

Bowl season is here, capturing the attention of millions of egg-nog chugging, cookie-gorging Americans, especially those involved in pick 'em challenges. The first few matchups are rather bland, but after a few weeks without college football, plenty of pigskin-deprived fans will be tuning in. Besides, if you don't watch the first one, you can't watch them all. The guru is here to give you his take on the opening games, so that you can impress your relatives with your knowledge of University of Texas El Paso Miners. Quick, what's the name of UTEP's mascot?

The first postseason matchup of the year is the New Mexico Bowl, famous (?) for its symbolic trophy. (A traditional Native American clay pot emblazoned with the image of one of the state's great football players, for those of you who don't click the link.) Comparable to the Lombardi Trophy? You bet. The games pits the BYU Cougars against the aforementioned Miners of El Paso. The Cougars come in having won four of their last five, while UTEP has dropped five of their past six. Neither team has a notable ranking in offense or defense, passing or rushing. But give the edge to the Cougars, who come in hot having nearly defeated rival Utah, currently 19th in the BCS rankings, in their regular season finale.

The guru selects BYU with 16 confidence points, for you pick 'em players.

utepathletics.com

My hat goes off to any of you who knew correctly identified Paydirt Pete.

The second game on the schedule is the Humanitarian Bowl, played in beautiful Boise, Idaho. (What a sweet destination for a mid-December game.) Duking it out will be Northern Illinois and Fresno State. The Huskies (Northern Illinois. Again, I bet most of your relatives won't know that one.) enter the game looking for their eleventh win, which would be the most in school history. But they are dealing with the departure of head coach Jerry Kill, who fled for the University of Minnesota. Fresno State, sans NFL first round pick Ryan Mathews, took a major step backwards in 2010. The Bulldogs aren't weak in any one field, but they lack a defining quality. NIU's potent rushing attack (6.2 YPC, 28 TDs) leads them past Fresno State.

The guru choose NIU with 10 confidence points.

Rounding out Saturday's action, the Troy Trojans will square off against the Ohio Bobcats in the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans have a high-flying passing attack, which contrasts sharply with Ohio's strong rushing offense. The Bobcats' anemic passing game will keep them from capitalizing on Troy's miserable secondary, which yields some of the most yards in the FBS. The Bobcats have a stout run defense, which will do them little good against the arm of Troy QB Corey Robinson, who threw for over 3,000 yards this season. In a game of conflicting offensive strategies (light up the scoreboard vs control the clock), it will be interesting to see which method comes through.

The guru says Troy with 12 confidence points.

With almost a month of bowl games ahead of us, take the time to start the holiday season on the right foot. Tune in for these seemingly boring games because, you never know when they may get interesting. (Just kidding. That link is actually really boring. I never thought I would find a Youtube video with only 1 view. Never underestimate the magnitude of the New Orleans Bowl.)

December 12, 2010

College Bowl Pick 'Em Challenge

After yet another glorious year, we have reached the pinnacle of the college football season. Yes, the bowls are finally here. There are thirty five this year, meaning that there will undoubtedly be some duds. However, this this is the time when we see more inter-conference games than ever, ending debates (somewhat) that have been raging for months as to who has a tougher schedule.

To celebrate, the guru is hosting a tournament. All are welcome to compete in the College Bowl Pick 'Em Challenge, where contestants must predict the outcome of all 35 bowl games. To complicate matters, challengers must rank the games in order of their confidence in the selection. If you correctly predict the winner of the game you ranked highest, then you receive 35 points, second highest, 34 points, etc. However, if you do not choose the winner, you receive no points.

The tournament will be hosted by the fine folks at Yahoo! Sports. To enter, contestants must have a Yahoo! username, which are free and simple to create. Once signed in, navigate to the fantasy sports page. About half-way down the right-hand side, there will be a link that says "College Bowl Pick 'Em: Sign Up Now." Choose "Join A Group," then enter the following information:

League ID: 5593
Password: college

If you have difficulty registering, contact the guru at FANTASYguru37@gmail.com.

As always, the winner earns a spot in the prestigious fantasy football expert league hosted by the guru. Don't miss out on your chance to compete head-to-head with the guru himself.