Welcome to Fantasy Guru 37's Blog. I will try to post a few times per week discussing sports and their fantasy implications. I will focus primarily on the NHL, NFL, and NCAAF, however I touch upon PGA Tour golf, the NBA, and NCAAB. Your comments are always appreciated. Feel free to email me at fantasyguru37@gmail.com with any questions or feedback you may have.

February 1, 2011

Super Bowl XLV


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Almost a year ago, we began preparing for the game that will be played this Sunday. As soon as the last piece of confetti rained down on Bourbon Street, Americans turned their attention to Super Bowl XLV, next in the line of hallowed games. This year's matchup should not disappoint, as two of the league's most storied franchises will square off in what will surely go down as a tremendous game.

But what will happen exactly? Will Ben Roethlisberger, already the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl, take the next step to greatness and capture a third title? Or will the gunslinging Aaron Rodgers make Green Bay fans forget about Brett Favre and give the city its first taste of glory since 1996? Read on for an in-depth look at the individual matchups that will determine the outcome of Super Bowl XLV...or just skip to the bottom and see the prediction. It's up to you.

On the surface, these two teams appear to be very similar. Both squads run a 3-4 defense in which their linebackers thrive in pass-rushing roles. Both have quarterbacks that can extend plays with their feet. And both have tremendous players in the secondary. But a closer look will reveal just how different these two teams actually are and why one team has a massive advantage over the other.

In just his third year as a starter, Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers has done more than live up to expectations. After injuries decimated key components of the offense (The Packers have more players on Injured Reserve than any other team in the league.), Rodgers put the team on his back and has carried them to Dallas. Against a defense yielding the second lowest QB Rating Against (second only to the Packers), some expect Rodgers to struggle, especially when they consider the Steelers led the league in sacks. Yes, the Steeler pass defense certainly looks imposing with their 15:21 TD:INT ratio, but the guru still anticipates a big day from Rodgers.

Fans may recall the Super Bowl XLIII matchup between the Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals had ridden to the game on the backs of quarterback Kurt Warner and wideout Larry Fitzgerald. But as the game progressed, many were left wondering what had become of Arizona's vaunted aerial connection. Long story short, Troy Polamalu happened. He had been assigned to Fitzgerald and successfully locked down on him for most of the game. Expect Green Bay wide receiver Greg Jennings to receive the same treatment. Left alone, Jennings will have his way with cornerback Ike Taylor, forcing defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau to dedicate his most valuable defensive piece to the Packers' top receiving threat.

While this assignment will likely neutralize Jennings, it removes Pittsburgh's most versatile player from the equation. Polamalu will not be able to line up all over the field and create confusion as he normally does. As a result, Rodgers will look to his other capable wide receivers, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson. Should he avoid the Steelers' pass rush, a tall order despite his scrambling abilities, Rodgers will be able to complete passes to his secondary and tertiary targets. And because I refuse to dedicate a paragraph to it, forget Green Bay's rushing attack. Despite the recent emergence of James Starks, the Packer's ground game will be nonexistent on Sunday. The 2010 Steelers are the third best run defense in the modern era. Case closed.

On the other side of the ball, we are again faced with crucial individual matchups. The official NFL Injury Report (link located in the sidebar on the right) has not yet been released for Sunday's game, but a major question mark surrounds Steelers' center Maurkice Pouncey. In the AFC Championship game, he left in the first half with an apparent ankle injury. He did not return and was seen on the sideline with crutches. He is an integral part of the Steelers' offense, widely considered their best lineman. Lining up directly across from the center will be nose guard BJ Raji, the Packers 337 pound (officially 337, more like 360) behemoth. He has a special ability to clog up running lanes and still get to the quarterback. You may recall his touchdown in the NFC Championship. The Steelers certainly don't want to defend Raji with a backup, or worse, a limited Pouncey. Check the injury report for an update, but expect Raji to have a field day against Pittsburgh's already devastated offensive line.

When the line inevitably breaks down, we know Roethlisberger will be able to extend the play. It's what he is known for. But he may have trouble finding an open receiver. The guru has a connection with a very successful cornerback. This anonymous corner played with Tim Tebow in high school, captured a Florida AAAAA state championship, and has two NCAA Championship rings to his credit. It was he who told the guru that Ike Taylor is not what he is cracked up to be and it was he who played against Sam Shields in high school. Shields was a high school receiver and played the position at first in college. He was recruited by Miami solely as an athlete, and after struggling as both a wideout and a corner at the collegiate level, he went undrafted. He latched on with Green Bay primarily because of his, wait for it, athletic ability. He has since flourished with the Packers and will face a crucial assignment on Sunday. Expect him to square up with Pittsburgh speedster Mike Wallace, one of the fastest wideouts in the league and the Steelers' leading receiver. The anonymous corner anticipates that Shields will successfully defend Wallace, allowing Pro Bowlers Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams to shut down the rest of the Steelers' receivers.

Roethlisberger will look early and often to tight end Heath Miller. The big target will likely see more balls thrown his way than usual as Big Ben attempts to avoid the Green Bay pass rush, second only to the Steelers in sacks. Expect the Steelers to lean on the run; the Packers yield a generous 4.7 YPC, ranking 19th in the NFL. Rashard Mendenhall will likely see an excess of 20 carries as offensive coordinator Bruce Arians tries to keep Rodgers on the sideline.

In the end, this game should go down to the wire. We are all aware of Big Ben's penchant for game-winning drives, but expect the Packers to hold out. The guru has made his official prediction:

Green Bay 27 Pittsburgh 23

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