Welcome to Fantasy Guru 37's Blog. I will try to post a few times per week discussing sports and their fantasy implications. I will focus primarily on the NHL, NFL, and NCAAF, however I touch upon PGA Tour golf, the NBA, and NCAAB. Your comments are always appreciated. Feel free to email me at fantasyguru37@gmail.com with any questions or feedback you may have.

May 16, 2010

NHL Conference Finals


As expected, nothing went as expected in the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The two remaining teams in the East, Philadelphia and Montreal, were seeded 7th and 8th in their conference, and 15th and 16th in the entire playoffs. Neither squad had clinched a playoff spot until the final game of the regular season...in overtime. On the other side of the bracket, San Jose and Chicago finished the regular season one and two in the West, advancing this far despite the predictions of many that they would choke.

Not only did Montreal upset the President Trophy winners in Washington, they won their second Game 7 of 2010 on the road and disposed of the defending champion Penguins. Riding on the hot streak of Slovakian goaltender Jaroslav Halak, the Canadiens have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals despite a glut of injuries. The Habs showed their desperation by calling up defenseman P.K. Subban, who had played in just two NHL games prior to the start of the playoffs, both, coincidentally, against Philly. He has raised his game to an extraordinarily high level, eating big minutes (29:11 in Game 6 against Pittsburgh) and matching up with none other than Sidney Crosby. Defenseman Hal Gill is playing despite having 50 stitches in his leg. Still, Montreal is missing both Andrei Markov and Paul Mara on the back end.

Yet they continue to win. Mike Cammalleri leads the playoffs with a ridiculous 12 goals in 14 games. In the five games in which Montreal faced elimination, the sniper has cashed in six times. Talk about clutch. Without much secondary scoring, the Canadiens have been forced to sacrifice their bodies on defense, blocking an unprecedented 320 shots thus far. As a comparison, the Bruins blocked the second most shots in the playoffs, 196. Even with all the help, Halak has still needed to stand on his head, something he has been able to do with regularity. (Watch that video to the very end. The guru promises it is worth your time.)

As for the Flyers, they have battled injuries too. After starting goalie Ray Emery went down for the season, backup Brian Boucher missed some time. Relying on third stringer Michael Leighton worked for head coach Peter Laviolette, until Leighton suffered an injury. Boucher returned in time for the playoffs, where he was hurt once again. Leighton was forced into action earlier than expected, backstopping Philly's miraculous series comeback, just the third time in NHL history a team has come back from a 3-0 deficit. The Flyers were missing sniper Jeff Carter as well as defenseman Ian Laperriere, when Simon Gagne returned from injury. He scored four times in the Flyers' four quarterfinals victories, including two game-winners.

Both teams enter the third round after slogging through seven game series. The punishing style of the Broad Street Bullies should give them the edge. After 96 games, the injury-depleted Canadiens will not be at 100%. Another physical round will be too much for them to handle. Despite the support of the entire country of Canada (No Canadian team has drank from Lord Stanley's Cup since Montreal in 1993.), the Habs will fall to Philadelphia, ending their Cinderella story.

Prediction: Flyers overcome le bleu blanc rouge in seven tight games.

The story couldn't be any more different on the Pacific Coast, where the first two games of the Western Conference Finals will be played. San Jose has overcome their playoff woes, advancing to the third round for just the second time in team history. They owe their playoff life to their second line, who stepped up and played like stars in the opening series. The Olympic line rebounded against Detroit; Joe Thornton has nine points in six games after registering just two in the first five games of the Colorado series. Evgeni Nabokov will be making his 83rd start of the season Sunday against Chicago, in addition to the time he spent playing for Russia in the Olympics. His SV% was clicking at .928 prior to the Games, but has dropped to .902 since the Closing Ceremony. Fatigue seems to be taking a toll on his performance.

Jonathan Toews figures to be the hero of this series. He has 13 points in 10 career games against the Sharks in addition the 20 points in 12 playoff games this year. The Blackhawks have serious scoring depth as well. Second liners Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp have caused problems for opposing defenses game in and game out. Look for defenseman Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook to put up big numbers in this series. They will have the duty of matching up against Jumbo Joe, who has registered a -6 +/- rating through 11 games, despite having 11 points. Those of you enjoying playoff fantasy hockey should do everything in your power to have Keith and Seabrook in your starting lineup. Keep an eye on Brian Campbell, who is expected to return this series after missing months of action due to an Alex Ovechkin cheapshot. (More terrible commentary from Ed Olcyzk.)

These two teams look a lot alike on paper, but don't let the stats fool you. San Jose's top defensemen, Dan Boyle (age 33) and Rob Blake (40) aren't exactly spring chickens. They will likely have trouble handling the speed of Blackhawk youngsters Toews and Patrick Kane. That is the matchup that should determine the series. Everything else about these two teams adds up very evenly, from shaky goaltending (Nabokov's .907 playoff SV% stacks up to Antti Niemi's .909) to offensive firepower.

Prediction: Blackhawks win in six games as Nabokov's play deteriorates.

No comments:

Post a Comment