Fantasy Take: The Return of Favre

It's official: Favre Watch 2010 is over. The forty year-old announced this week that he will return for a twentieth NFL season, hoping to extend his record for most consecutive starts (285 regular season, 309 including playoffs). What does this mean for fantasy owners? Those who already drafted Vikings can breathe a sigh of relief, but just how much?

The biggest benefactor from the return is undoubtedly wideout Sidney Rice. The former Gamecock exploded onto the fantasy scene in his third season, catching 83 passes for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns with Favre at the helm. Draft him with confidence as your #1 fantasy receiver because he will certainly produce. In order to do so, you will likely be forced to spend a high pick; he is typically the sixth or seventh receiver off the board, a price you should be willing to pay. As with all Vikings, his success is tied to the health of Favre, but keep in mind that the graybeard hasn't sat out a game since 1992.

Adrian Peterson should be the first pick in every league this year, PPR or not, for reasons outlined here. He is the only player in the league, with the exception of Drew Brees, that brings zero questions to the table. He has the talent, the opportunity, and the supporting cast to put up solid numbers week in and week out. Landing him at #2 overall is a steal. A bold statement, but true. The return of Favre is simply icing on the cake.

Percy Harvin continues to struggle with migraine issues, reportedly collapsing on the sideline during training camp. Should he be able to play this season, and those who owned him last year remember the headaches his headaches caused, he should improve on the 790 receiving yards from his rookie year. He also adds some yards on the ground and returns kicks, which helps his draft stock. Drafting Harvin comes with big risk, one the guru is not willing to take at the current ADP (#60 overall, #24 WR).

You have certainly heard the story with tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. He doesn't rack up a ton of yards, but he makes up for it in the TD column. The fact of the matter is that this leads to wild inconsistency, one of the most frustrating traits of a fantasy player. If you can handle ups and downs, pull the trigger on Shiancoe because Favre targets him in the redzone. Owners looking for reliability should look elsewhere.

As for Bernard Berrian, scratch him off your draft list. He is listed as #2 on the Vikings depth chart, but he doesn't get enough looks from Favre to warrant consideration as a fantasy receiver. With a late pick in your draft, take a shot on someone with potential instead of burning one on a guy with the ceiling of Berrian.

Favre himself becomes solid starter at QB. Assuming improvement from the Minnesota defense and an unwillingness to expose the old man, the Vikes will look to run more this year. His recent ascendancy into the top 3 fantasy quarterbacks will be short lived. Look for him after guys like Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers are off the board.

So there you have it. After months of uncertainty, we can now be sure that Brett Favre will play in 2010. For now, anyway.

NFC Championship

The guru is issuing a warning to all citizens of New Orleans: Watch out for shrapnel from the inevitable explosion of the Superdome. Sunday's NFC Championship may become of the most exciting games in recent memory. The offenses are high-powered. The defenses are electric. The storyline is incomparable. Do not miss this game.

Minnesota's skill players will have trouble hearing Favre's audibles as the crazed fans of Louisiana will raise the decibel level inside the enclosed stadium. If this forces the Vikings to simplify their playcalling, they will have no hesitation to put the ball in the hands of Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson. While his 5th place finish in rushing yards was disappointing, much of the blame can be put on the offensive line, who were continually overpowered by opposing defenses. Peterson's ability to stay on his feet after contact and plow ahead for additional yards will pay dividends against a New Orleans defense starting defensive tackles Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele, both weighing in at over 300 pounds. After unleashing Peterson on the Saints, who allow 4.5 YPC, Favre should see some open passing lanes to exploit. The ageless wonder may be missing his most explosive receiver, rookie Percy Harvin, who is listed on the Injury Report (link in the sidebar to the right) as questionable. Should Harvin be unable to play, the Vikings can still hurt the Saints with Sidney Rice and receiving tight end Vishante Shiancoe.

Drew Brees is at the helm of the NFL's most powerful offense. In 2008, Brees became the 2nd quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 5,000 yards in a season. A more balanced attack this year has caused a decline in yardage, but the potential remains. New Orleans is fully capable of picking apart Minnesota's 19th ranked pass defense. Defensive end Jared Allen creates problems for an offense that doesn't run with regularity. Minnesota finished the season with one of the league's most impressive run defenses. But linebacker E.J. Henderson was lost to a gruesome leg injury in early December.

Points will be plentiful. There will be turnovers. Harvin and Reggie Bush are ridiculously explosive. Both teams have Pro Bowlers in the secondary.

Prediction: NO 34 MIN 27

NFC Divisional Round

Last week's NFC Wild Card Round included a game played by two of the most bitter rivals in the league, Dallas and Philadelphia. Their history is filled with a strong hatred of each other, and last Saturday marked the second time the teams had met in as many weeks. However, that matchup is now completely overshadowed, a strange feeling for America's Team, by the epic quarterback duel between future Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner's Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers' Brett, excuse me, Aaron Rodgers. The teams combined for 96 points and 801 passing yards, while only one interception was tossed. Last week featured a game for the ages; will history repeat itself this week as Arizona takes on the high-octane New Orleans Saints?

Saturday, New Orleans hosts the Cards at the Superdome, a perfect venue for more passing records to be set. It sure is hard to doubt a team that put up 51 points against the NFL's #2 defense, but the guru does not believe a second straight NFC Championship game is in the Cards. (Get it?)

As previously mentioned, Warner torched the Packers' secondary, ranked 5th in the league, for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. He completed 29 of 33 passes for a rating of 154.1, 2nd best in postseason history. He was sacked just once and didn't throw a single pick. He got some help from the Cardinals' suddenly lively backfield, who contributed 156 yards on the ground. These ridiculous stats came without star wide receiver Anquan Boldin, against a Green Bay defense ranked 2nd in total D, 5th in passing defense, and 1st in the rushing game. The Packers recorded 37 regular season sacks and picked off 30 passes, the most in the NFL. So yeah, the Cardinals offense is pretty good. But they have another formidable adversary to face, the Saints defense. New Orleans has 35 sacks and 26 interceptions of their own, against just 15 passing touchdowns. They should offer some resistance to Warner's crew, especially if Boldin does not play. (A link to the official NFL Injury Report can be found in the sidebar on the right, along with some other interesting websites.)

New Orleans' offense is among the most potent in league history, averaging over 40o yards per game. They are led by super-accurate passer (Click on that link.) Drew Brees, whose 18,298 passing yards over the past four seasons, including 5,069 in 2008, rank second to none. This aerial barrage is even more daunting than that of the Pack, who put up 422 passing yards of their own last week. New Orleans also earned the league's #6 rushing offense, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Cardinals rank 17th in the running game, yielding 112.8 yards per game and 4.5 YPC. With three members of the secondary listed on the Injury Report, Arizona is going to have a tough challenge slowing down the Saints' march.

The Saints started the season 13-0, but lost the final three games, causing many analysts to believe they aren't at the top of their game. You can be sure the players have heard this and that they want to silence the critics. Remember Brees is only the second QB, behind only Dan Marino, to pass for over 5,000 yards in a single season. Arizona let Green Bay throw for 422 yards and four touchdowns only a week ago. Since then the Cardinals have been roughed up, while the Saints have had extra time to rest and heal.

Prediction: NO 37 ARI 34

On Sunday, the NFC East Champion Dallas Cowboys will pay a visit to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The media is excessively critical of the Cowboys' ability to win in December and January, but their recent play has seemed to silence the critics. Something you haven't heard, however, is that Minnesota has not won a home playoff game since the 2000 season. But the Vikings never had a leader quite like Brett Favre playing quarterback.

Dallas' passing offense is ranked 6th in the league, averaging 267.9 yards per game. They have thrown for 26 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Minnesota has recorded 48 sacks this year, tops in the NFL. Their pass rush is led by DE Jared Allen, whose 14.5 sacks put him just shy of Elvis Dumervil for the league lead. Surprisingly, this heavy pressure has not led to many turnovers. The Vikings have only tallied 11 interceptions, one of the lowest totals in the league. They conceded the 19th most yards this season (3,494) and allowed the eighth highest completion percentage (63.7). Dallas' three-pronged rushing attack is one of the NFL's most dominant, accumulating the seventh most yards (2,103) and the third highest YPC (4.8). The Vikings' run defense is one of the game's most fearsome, conceding just 87.1 yards per game, finishing behind only division rival Green Bay. They allow just 3.9 YPC, tying them with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati for 5th in the league. Their five touchdowns against ties them with the Packers for the NFL's lowest total.

Brett Favre has revitalized the passing attack in Minnesota, leading the Vikings to 259.8 yards per game through the air, up from 184.8 in 2008. Wide receiver Sidney Rice has broken out to become one of the game's elite. He caught 83 passes for 1,312 yards, fourth most in the league. Dallas' pass defense ranks one spot behind Minnesota at #20. They have recorded 42 sacks this season, including 11 from OLB DeMarcus Ware. They have forced the same 11 interceptions as the Vikings, but have yielded seven less aerial touchdowns. Minnesota relies on Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson, whose 18 rushing TD's were the most in the league. He ran for over 1,300 yards and averaged 4.4 YPC. He is what makes this offense go. Dallas has been stout against the run this season, allowing only 90.5 yards per game, fourth in the NFL. Opposing teams average just 4.0 YPC against the Cowboys and have only scored 7 rushing TD's.

These two teams look a lot alike. Both have playoff trouble and mediocre pass defenses. Both excel at rushing the passer and stopping the run. Both can get it done in the air or on the ground. Both have explosive offensive weapons in Minnesota's Percy Harvin and Dallas' Felix Jones. The guru gives the edge to Dallas for their recent success. They seemed to have peaked at the right time, for once.

Prediction: DAL 27 MIN 20